Planetary defense teams have officially cleared Earth from potential asteroid 2024 YR4 impacts following intensive observations. Initial calculations showed a concerning 3% chance of Earth collision in 2032, but updated NASA and ESA models now show less than 0.003% risk over the next century.
The 130-300 foot space rock still carries a 1.7% probability of lunar impact on December 22, 2032. ‘While this asteroid no longer threatens Earth, 2024 YR4 provides crucial planetary defense insights,’ NASA stated in a
critical updatereleased Tuesday.
Key developments:
- Webb Space Telescope to conduct precision size measurements next month
- Orbital analysis confirms four-year solar return cycle
- Global telescope network maintains continuous tracking
First detected in December 2024, the asteroid will disappear from view within eight weeks as it moves away from Earth’s orbital plane. ESA risk assessment protocols automatically triggered emergency monitoring when initial projections showed elevated impact potential.
NASA’s Sentry Impact Risk Table downgraded 2024 YR4 after analyzing:
- Gravitational keyhole dynamics
- Solar radiation pressure effects
- Millimeter-precision orbital measurements
Planetary scientists emphasize this event demonstrates improved asteroid tracking capabilities. ‘Near-Earth object identification has advanced dramatically since the Chelyabinsk meteor incident,’ noted ESA’s Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre in a technical briefing.