Belarus is once again under international scrutiny as President Alexander Lukashenko stands poised to extend his nearly three-decade reign in a controversial election. Onlookers couldn't miss his face, beaming from countless campaign posters with the slogan Needed! prominently displayed, a direct ploy to win over the electorate.
This election, much like the last in 2020, has opponents dubbing it a charade amidst an unyielding crackdown on dissent. Lukashenko's government has been relentless, imprisoning opposition figures or forcing them into exile. The previous election ignited an unprecedented wave of protests in Belarus, a nation of 9 million, resulting in mass arrests exceeding 65,000, widespread condemnation, and sanctions from Western nations.
Known as Europe’s Last Dictator, Lukashenko has held power since 1994, relying on Russia's patronage both economically and politically. In 2022, his alignment with Moscow was underscored when he permitted Russian forces to stage operations against Ukraine from Belarusian soil, even allowing the stationing of Russian tactical nuclear weapons.
Despite this, Lukashenko campaigns on a platform of Peace and security, positioning Belarus as a bastion of stability in a volatile region, a stark contrast to neighboring Ukraine. He has frequently defended his authoritarian approach, saying, It’s better to have a dictatorship like in Belarus than a democracy like Ukraine. This rhetoric is backed by his longstanding alliance with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a vital factor in his political survival post-2020.
Expectations of potential protests, fueled by economic woes and the Ukrainian conflict, seemingly prompted Lukashenko to schedule the election in January, avoiding the historically unrest-prone August. The opposition remains negligible, with figures in the race like Communist Party candidate Sergei Syrankov openly expressing allegiance to Lukashenko.
His 20-year-old son, Nikolai, has also been active on the campaign trail, a potential hint at dynastic aspirations despite Lukashenko’s insistence that he is not clinging to power. His public appearances have been marked by visible health struggles, yet he insists on his vitality, claiming a readiness to peacefully transfer power to a new generation. However, political analysts like Valery Karbalevich see no signs of an impending handover.
Most vocal opposition leaders, including Nobel laureate Ales Bialiatski, remain either imprisoned or in exile. The government has sought to stifle dissent by detaining hundreds associated with previous protests or who merely voiced opposition online. Arrests in recent months highlight the regime's ongoing repressive tactics.
With critics labeling the election a farce, the European Union and international bodies have been urged to denounce its outcomes. Media watchdogs, like Reporters Without Borders, have sought legal action against Lukashenko's systemic crackdown on press freedom, citing the imprisonment of journalists as a grave concern.
Amidst accusations of vote manipulation, nearly 27% of the electorate participated in early voting, with polling stations adopting strict measures to prevent photographic evidence of ballots, an attempt to counter election rigging claims. Security forces have visibly prepared for any disturbances, maintaining an intimidating presence in public spaces.
Belarus's recent pivot towards Moscow in foreign policy, marked by deteriorating ties with the West, reflects a complex regional dynamic. Analyst Artyom Shraybman points to Belarus's increasing reliance on Russia as a significant pivot, likening its current status to a satellite state. Despite his firm grip on power, Lukashenko may attempt to thaw relations with the West post-election, seeking to alleviate sanctions and regain a semblance of diplomatic balance.
The outcome of this election is not merely a domestic affair; it holds broader implications for Belarus's role on the international stage. As Lukashenko seeks validation amid widespread criticism, the geopolitical aftermath will undoubtedly shape the nation’s future trajectory.
