In the heart of London, five years ago, two distinct groups gathered by Britain's Parliament. One waved Union Jacks in triumph, while the other held European Union flags in sorrow. It was January 31, 2020, and at the stroke of 11 p.m. in London — which marked midnight in Brussels — the United Kingdom officially parted ways with the European Union. This historic moment concluded nearly five decades of membership that bestowed free trade and movement between Britain and 27 European nations.
Brexit supporters championed the moment as the UK's return to sovereign rule, now charting its own course without EU interference. On the flip side, opponents viewed it as an era of isolation, stripping the nation of its interconnected essence. Undoubtedly, Britain stood as a nation divided, embarking on an uncertain journey into uncharted waters.
Anand Menon, head of the think-tank 'UK in a Changing Europe', eloquently described the profound shifts Brexit has set in motion. The impact has been truly transformative, Menon asserted, pointing to significant changes in both the economy and political landscape. He emphasized how Brexit has become a permanent feature of the country's electoral politics.
Britain's relationship with the EU was always fraught with tension — a stark contrast for an island nation with a rich historical narrative. The referendum in June 2016 came amid a backdrop of deindustrialization, budget cuts, and high immigration, fertile grounds for the pro-Brexit claim of regaining 'control' over borders, laws, and the economy. However, the narrow 52% to 48% vote to leave was unexpectedly shocking to many, sparking a series of immediate challenges.
The Conservative government, having advocated for remaining in the EU, found itself unprepared for the complexities of the separation process. The ensuing period was marked by prolonged negotiations over departure terms, ultimately leading to Prime Minister Theresa May's resignation in 2019. Boris Johnson, her successor, promised to firmly 'get Brexit done', but the journey proved far from simple.
The UK's formal departure lacked comprehensive agreements on future economic ties with the EU, Britain's main trade partner. A whirlwind of negotiations ensued, culminating in a rather basic trade agreement on Christmas Eve 2020. While tariffs and quotas were avoided, businesses faced new hurdles like red tape, added costs, and logistical delays.
For companies like My Nametags, run by Lars Andersen, the Brexit reality presents challenges yet survival. Andersen's company had to streamline operations via Ireland to maintain EU trade, but not every business has been so adaptable. In contrast, Julianne Ponan, the brain behind allergen-free food brand Creative Nature, saw her EU export market crumble. Resourcefulness led her to tap into alternative markets in the Middle East and Australia, exemplifying the resilience some businesses have shown.
The Office for Budget Responsibility predicts long-term declines in UK trade and productivity as a direct consequence of Brexit. Although new trade agreements with nations like Australia and Canada promise opportunities, experts like David Henig caution they haven’t compensated for losses with Europe's nearby markets.
Brexit's unforeseen impacts extend beyond economics to immigration, with the number of non-EU international workers rising significantly post-Brexit. This influx challenges previous assumptions surrounding the vote to leave, with many Brexit voters prioritizing reduced immigration.
International challenges, including the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, further obscure Brexit's effects, complicating a straightforward evaluation. On a strategic level, Britain's position between Europe and its 'special relationship' with the U.S. has intensified with the current political climate.
Public sentiment has gradually soured on Brexit, with many now viewing it as a misstep. Yet, the prospect of rejoining the EU seems distant, with memories of divisive debates still fresh. While Labour Party leader and current Prime Minister Keir Starmer has pledged to 'reset' EU relations, ambitions are modest—focusing on easing bureaucratic barriers for sectors like arts and security cooperation. Meanwhile, the EU, burdened with internal challenges, sees Britain as a lesser priority.
Lars Andersen, an optimist amid these changes, envisages a gradual rapprochement between the UK and the EU, fostered quietly rather than through high-profile political altercations. It's tough to mend relations after such a severe split, he noted, but I’m hopeful that with time, we'll draw closer once more.
