Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to Washington marks a significant juncture in India-U.S. relations, especially considering the anticipated discussions on tariffs. While Modi has fostered a personal rapport with President Trump, maintaining these ties amidst changing global dynamics presents a potential challenge.
During Modi’s imminent talks, the focus is expected to be on evading additional tariffs as the U.S. enforces economic strategies that have affected many partners. While India has so far maintained a strategic exemption, Trump’s label of India as a “tariff king” suggests friction.
Modi is on a diplomatic quest, aiming to reshape India’s ties with Western powers following his decision to remain uncritical of Russia amid its conflict with Ukraine. Nevertheless, the bond shared with Trump puts Modi in a unique position—a leader of a nation heralded as a critical ally in the U.S. strategy against Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
While Modi has been criticized domestically for India’s democratic backslide, internationally, the need to strike a balance in foreign relationships remains crucial. According to Meera Shankar, India’s former ambassador to the U.S., strong ties with the U.S. are pivotal as India can simultaneously display resolve and adaptability in tariff negotiations. Shankar believes that maintaining goodwill can minimize tensions while securing India’s core interests.
The diplomatic visit comes on the heels of the ruling party's electoral victories in India, giving Modi a strengthened domestic mandate as he embarks on strategic conversations. Topics such as trade, technology, and defense will be central, especially given the U.S. interest in reducing its trade imbalance with India.
Reports indicate the U.S. has pressured India to import more American military equipment, a point Trump underlined during recent discussions. For instance, the White House emphasized the imperative for India to increase purchases of American-made security gear to foster a fair trade relationship. This aligns with recent developments such as India’s willingness to return U.S.-deported migrants and lower tariffs on American imports, including certain iconic products like Harley-Davidson motorcycles.
Lisa Curtis, director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program, suggests that purchasing more American natural gas could be another avenue to soften the trade deficit. Additionally, India's agreement to host a ‘Quad’ summit demonstrates its strategic importance in U.S. plans to curtail China’s influence.
However, India’s challenge lies in recalibrating its role should U.S.-China relations improve. As Happymon Jacob of the Council for Strategic and Defense Research highlights, any U.S.-China reconciliation could pressure India to reassess its external strategies without compromising its sovereignty.
Despite these challenges, the U.S. remains India’s primary trade ally, with a significant trade imbalance favoring India. India relies heavily on Russian defense equipment but faces uncertainties due to the Ukraine conflict, prompting a pivot towards U.S. suppliers.
A notable advancement in Indo-U.S. defense collaboration is the recent deal involving General Electric and Hindustan Aeronautics to manufacture jet engines in India and the purchase of U.S. drones. These developments indicate the potential for deepening defense ties.
Raja Mohan from the Institute of South Asian Studies emphasizes that Modi’s visit is a crucial moment to translate shared goodwill into tangible outcomes, enhancing the Indo-U.S. partnership across various sectors.