- Export growth slows to 2.3% amid weakening global demand
- Imports contract 8% signaling domestic consumption challenges
- Trade surplus expands to $170.5B despite tariff pressures
- ASEAN nations remain China's largest trading bloc with 5.7% growth
China’s trade performance faltered in early 2025, with underwhelming export figures and a sharp import decline revealing vulnerabilities in the world’s second-largest economy. Combined January-February data showed shipments abroad growing at half the projected rate, while domestic purchases of foreign goods plunged unexpectedly. This sluggish start coincides with escalating U.S. trade restrictions and shifting global supply chain strategies.
The 8% year-on-year import contraction suggests weakening domestic demand despite Beijing’s stimulus efforts. Analysts note this reversal indicates temporary government spending measures in late 2024 failed to sustain momentum. Guangdong province manufacturers report delayed equipment upgrades, with machinery imports falling 12% – a worrying sign for industrial productivity.
Regional trade dynamics show striking contrasts. Shipments to ASEAN countries grew 5.7%, cementing Southeast Asia’s position as China’s top trading partner. This aligns with Beijing’s ‘Southern Pivot’ strategy to reduce Western dependence. Conversely, exports to Russia dropped nearly 11% as Moscow accelerates import substitution programs, while European demand stagnated with just 0.6% growth.
U.S.-bound exports face mounting challenges after February’s tariff increase to 20% on $300B worth of Chinese goods. Logistics firms report a 40% month-on-month decline in March container bookings to American ports. Semiconductor exporters are particularly affected, with SMIC and YMTC rerouting 18% of production to Middle Eastern and African markets.
Emerging bright spots include green technology exports, where solar panel shipments surged 22% to developing nations. This growth partially offsets declines in traditional sectors, suggesting China’s industrial transformation is yielding early dividends. However, economists warn the renewable energy boom can’t fully compensate for broader manufacturing slowdowns.
Beijing remains cautiously optimistic, banking on its ‘Dual Circulation’ economic model to balance domestic and international markets. Commerce Ministry officials highlight a 15% increase in cross-border e-commerce transactions as proof of trade diversification. Meanwhile, state media emphasizes the 5% GDP growth target remains achievable through enhanced regional partnerships and digital trade platforms.
