Ecuador is gearing up for a pivotal moment in its political landscape with an upcoming presidential runoff election. This follows a contentious election where conservative incumbent Daniel Noboa and leftist lawyer Luisa González emerged as the top contenders. The election, which initially featured a crowded field of 16 candidates, has set the stage for a head-to-head battle scheduled for April 13.
The stakes are high as Noboa and González vie for a full four-year term, with both candidates pledging to tackle the pervasive criminal activity that has severely impacted Ecuadorians' daily lives over the past four years. The rise in violence is predominantly linked to the cocaine trade, fed by production in neighboring Colombia and Peru.
Satellite data has revealed a grim increase in crime across Ecuador, with numerous citizens becoming victims of violent acts. This surge in crime has been a decisive factor for voters who are uncertain whether a new leader will effectively address these issues or if Noboa, who has held a temporary presidency following the October 2023 snap election, deserves continuity in office.
Noboa, who hails from a prominent family in the banana trade sector, has been a key figure in Ecuador's political scene, despite his relatively brief tenure in governance. Data from Ecuador’s National Electoral Council show Noboa leading slightly ahead with over 3.71 million votes, constituting 44.43% of the total votes cast. His opponent, González, closely trails with more than 3.69 million votes or 44.17%.
Ecuador’s voting system mandates participation, and a significant majority—more than 83% of the approximately 13.7 million eligible voters—turned out to make their voices heard.
Under Noboa's leadership, there has been a noted decline in the homicide rate, dropping from 46.18 per 100,000 individuals to 38.76 per 100,000 in just one year. Despite this improvement, the numbers are still far above the pre-crisis rate of 6.85 per 100,000 in 2019. Other crimes such as kidnappings and extortion have shown alarming growth, fostering an atmosphere of fear throughout the nation.
Among Noboa’s supporters is retiree German Rizzo, who appreciates Noboa's firm stance against organized crime. Noboa is the only person hitting organized crime hard, he remarked, highlighting the president's aggressive tactics, which include deploying military forces and authorizing contentious police actions to curb criminal elements.
However, not all citizens are convinced of Noboa's methods. A resident, Marta Barres, shared her discontent, For me, this president is disastrous, she expressed, harboring hopes that González may offer fresh solutions. González, an associate of former president Rafael Correa, gained prominence during the latter's presidency and aims to rejuvenate the economy while ensuring public safety.
The path to victory demands a candidate to secure at least 50% of the vote or clinch 40% with a 10-point advantage over their rival. Security for the elections has been stringent, with over 100,000 members of law enforcement and military personnel ensuring safe polling conditions across the nation.
For González, this election presents a critical opportunity to step beyond her mentor’s shadow and establish her own identity. Despite being largely unknown until recently, her campaign has gained considerable traction, attributing in part to disillusionment with prevalent corruption and crime.
Political analysts suggest that both candidates face challenges ahead. Esteban Ron, an academic from Quito, emphasized the need for Noboa to recalibrate his campaign strategies to maintain voter interest, as the electorate's patience with the current state of governance may be waning.
The outcome of this election not only holds significant implications for Ecuador’s immediate political future but also reflects broader concerns and hopes for societal transformation. As the nation anticipates this pivotal runoff, the promise of change remains a crucial factor that will likely steer voters’ decisions in this critical juncture of Ecuador’s political journey.
