- Wholesale egg prices fell 33% in three weeks, reaching $4.15 per dozen
- Decline driven by reduced demand, fewer avian flu cases, and delayed Easter demand
- Retail prices remain high at $5.90 per dozen, up 159% year-over-year
- DOJ investigating potential price manipulation by major producers
- Industry analysts predict grocery store relief within 4–6 weeks
The U.S. egg market continues its dramatic reversal as wholesale prices recorded a third consecutive weekly decline. According to USDA data, bulk purchasing costs now sit at $4.15 per dozen—a $2.70 drop from February peaks. This downward trend emerges as poultry farms recover from last year’s devastating avian influenza outbreaks that decimated flocks.
Market analysts attribute the shift to a perfect storm of factors. Consumer resistance to record-high prices has decreased demand across commercial bakeries, restaurants, and households. Simultaneously, warmer weather patterns have slowed HPAI transmission rates, allowing producers to rebuild inventory. The Easter holiday’s April arrival—three weeks later than 2024—further reduced seasonal buying pressure.
Regional Spotlight: Iowa, responsible for 15% of U.S. egg production, exemplifies the recovery. After losing 11 million hens to bird flu in 2024, the state’s flock capacity has rebounded to 92% pre-outbreak levels. Improved biosecurity measures and faster containment protocols helped stabilize supply chains,notes Iowa Poultry Association director Mark Hansen.
Three critical industry developments suggest lasting changes:
- Feed costs dropped 18% since December due to improved corn harvests
- Brazilian egg imports surged 240% in Q1 2025, supplementing domestic supplies
- Plant-based egg alternatives now claim 7% market share, up from 4% in 2023
Despite wholesale relief, consumers still face sticker shock. February’s retail prices climbed 10.4% monthly to $5.90 per dozen—a figure the USDA attributes to contractual lag times. It typically takes 6–8 weeks for wholesale trends to reach supermarkets,explains agricultural economist Dr. Sarah Lin. We expect visible shelf price reductions by mid-April.
The Justice Department’s ongoing probe into alleged price-fixing complicates the landscape. While no charges have been filed, investigators recently subpoenaed financial records from five major producers. This scrutiny follows bipartisan pressure, including President Trump’s public demands for price controls and Senator Warren’s calls for antitrust reviews.
Looking ahead, industry forecasts remain cautiously optimistic. The USDA projects 2025’s average retail price will stabilize at $3.80–$4.20 per dozen—still elevated historically but far below current peaks. However, experts warn that another severe avian flu outbreak or feed cost spike could rapidly reverse gains.