As global eyes turn towards Eastern Europe, a discreet yet pivotal move is underway. A coalition of European nations is strategizing to potentially dispatch troops to Ukraine, a measure aimed at ensuring security amidst post-war settlements with Russia. This initiative is being spearheaded by the UK and France, reflecting Europe's growing concern over the U.S. shifting its security focus elsewhere.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is at the heart of this discussion, requiring assurances for his country's safety. The most straightforward path to security might have been NATO membership, an option stifled by U.S. reluctance to exacerbate tensions with Russia.
Efforts to create a suitable response force were conceptualized over a year ago. However, the urgency was heightened by apprehensions that former U.S. President Donald Trump might bypass European and Ukrainian interests in negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In a significant meeting in Brussels last December, leaders from the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Poland, along with European Union officials, convened to deliberate the modalities of such a force.
The troop deployment idea has gained momentum since early 2024, initially propelled by French President Emmanuel Macron. Though it faced resistance from nations like Germany and Poland, the concept is now gaining acceptance. Yet, critical facets like the nature of the peace agreement and each participating country's legal and political limitations remain under discussion.
For instance, any potential peacekeeping force will be contingent on the precise terms of a peace settlement. Nations could confront constitutional or parliamentary constraints, as seen with Italy and the Netherlands, respectively. Poland, given its complex historical ties with Ukraine, approaches the situation cautiously.
The size and scope of European involvement are subject to debate. Speculations range from a force of 30,000 to 150,000 troops, coupled with demands for comprehensive air support. However, the logistics of rapidly mobilizing such a large force pose significant challenges.
Experts, like Ben Hodges, former Commanding General of U.S. Army Europe, and retired French General Dominique Trinquand, emphasize the need for a robust force. Merely deploying United Nations-style peacekeepers would inadequately deter Russian aggression. The suggested contingent would require extensive military capabilities, including air and missile defense.
While European forces rally to ensure Ukraine's sovereignty potentially without the direct involvement of NATO or U.S. troops, the necessity of an 'American backstop' is acknowledged. Norway’s U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has advocated for a substantial international presence to oversee the line of contact in Ukraine, underlining the complexity of ensuring enduring peace.
Conclusively, while Europe inches towards forming a security force for Ukraine's post-war landscape, the outcome remains contingent on future political maneuvers and agreements. The overarching goal remains clear—stability and security for Ukraine in a volatile geopolitical environment. However, the absence of a definitive U.S. role suggests a continued dependency on European ingenuity and unity.
