In a landmark move, Secretary of State Marco Rubio sets off on his inaugural foreign mission this weekend, targeting pivotal discussions in Central America. This itinerary underscores President Donald Trump's administration's priorities: tackling illegal immigration and attempting to regain influence over the Panama Canal, which has recently become a contentious issue.
This selection of Central America as the initial destination for the U.S.'s chief diplomat is a departure from tradition, as predecessors often chose Europe or Asia for their first international engagements. However, this reflects Rubio's deep-rooted interest in Latin American affairs as the first Hispanic in this senior cabinet position and mirrors the Trump administration’s commitment to revitalizing its foreign policy focus within the Americas.
Writing for The Wall Street Journal, Rubio expressed, It's no accident that my first trip abroad as Secretary of State will keep me in the hemisphere. The focus isn't only on stemming migration and drug trade but also on countering China's increasing sway over the region. This strategy includes reviving discussions around U.S. involvement with the Panama Canal, a critical maritime route initially constructed by American engineers but handed back to Panama in 1999.
The opening stop on Rubio's five-nation tour will be Panama. Here, he faces a significant diplomatic challenge; President José Raúl Mulino has firmly stated that no negotiations concerning the canal's sovereignty will occur. Mulino's point of view is clear: The canal belongs to Panama. Nevertheless, Rubio intends to convey Trump's stance, hoping to bring shared concerns such as migration and drug trafficking to the forefront of discussions.
Amidst these diplomatic exchanges, there is intense focus on Chinese investments in strategic ports at both the Pacific and Caribbean ends of the canal, raising alarms about potential Chinese control over global shipping routes. Rubio warns of the vulnerabilities that these developments pose, particularly if obstructions occur, which would violate accords established by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter.
While Panama's outright rejection of renegotiation over canal control appears firm, some observers suggest potential compromise. Discussions may involve transferring operational rights from the current Hong Kong-managed entity to another international operator, potentially of American or European origin. However, it remains uncertain whether such shifts align with Trump's broader security and economic goals.
Ryan Berg, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, highlights the possibility of reaching an agreement, contingent on specific U.S. red lines. He notes, If Trump's ambitions extend beyond mere operational control, negotiators will face significant hurdles.
Rubio's itinerary also includes visits to El Salvador, Costa Rica, Guatemala, and the Dominican Republic, signifying a comprehensive approach to the region’s complex geopolitics. His diplomatic tour precedes the U.S.'s resumption of visa processing in Colombia, temporarily halted after diplomatic tensions.
Traditionally, U.S. diplomatic missions offer 'deliverables' such as economic assistance or collaboration announcements. However, under the current administration, these might be limited due to ongoing reviews of foreign programs ordered by Trump. Rubio is working to ensure that life-saving initiatives remain unaffected by funding freezes, with waivers under consideration for several Central American countries.
Notably, while Haiti remains excluded from Rubio's visit, his mandate has facilitated the allocation of $41 million to support key peacekeeping missions there, signaling continued U.S. engagement in pivotal humanitarian efforts across the region.
With immigration, drug trafficking, and rising global power dynamics on the agenda, Marco Rubio’s diplomatic foray promises to redefine U.S. influence in Central America, setting the stage for potential policy shifts that could resonate far beyond the hemisphere's borders.