In a conflict that's already etched deeply into the pages of history, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s vow of achieving “total victory” against Hamas is facing significant challenges. Fifteen months into a tense ceasefire, doubts have surfaced not just among the international community, but within Israel's own borders regarding Netanyahu’s ability to fulfill his promises.
The unexpected return of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to northern Gaza has added layers of complexity to Israel's strategic objectives. Many Israelis question how the nation can effectively resume its military actions if the fragile ceasefire fails without compromising the safety and rights of its displaced citizens. The scenario has raised crucial questions, epitomized by Ofer Shelah, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies. Shelah voiced concerns about the feasibility of relocating the population south once again, emphasizing that what remains now is a war unconducive to clear victories.
Israel’s engagement with Hamas began on October 7, 2023, following an unprecedented attack that resulted in over 1,200 Israeli casualties and several Israelis being taken hostage. In retaliation, Israel launched substantial air and ground offensives designed to dismantle Hamas’s infrastructure.
Despite significant military advancements, including killing much of Hamas's leadership and dismantling its operations, Netanyahu's victory remains incomplete. The current ceasefire involves the release of 33 hostages, the liberation of nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, and increased humanitarian aid to Gaza. More than a million Palestinians are peaceably returning to their previous lives in northern Gaza, indicating a potential complicating factor for future military endeavors.
The potential succeeding phase of this ceasefire suggests continued hostage releases and a move towards a sustainable peace. However, skepticism remains as uncertainties about further agreements linger. Should negotiations between Israel and Hamas stall, the fate of at least half of the 90 remaining hostages remains in limbo, and many are presumed dead. Pressing questions about governance in Gaza are still unanswered as Hamas reasserts its presence.
Hamas's efforts to regain composure became evident with the swift deployment of uniformed police and public festivities celebrating hostage releases. As Hamas maintains its grip over Gaza, it takes the presence of returning locals as a victory against Israel.
Amid these developments, Israel opened the Netzarim corridor to ease Palestinian re-entrance into northern Gaza. This move has provided Hamas with operational freedom, weakening Israeli tactical advantages, a point former Israeli general Giora Eiland has notably criticized.
International influences play a large role, with the United States under Donald Trump's leadership hinting at pursuing secondary negotiations rather than restarting hostilities. The visits of Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff to Israel and Netanyahu's upcoming White House meeting serve as key indicators of upcoming geopolitical movements.
Domestically, Netanyahu continues to reaffirm Israel's commitment to its objectives despite the truce. However, experts consider resuming conflict challenging due to waning public enthusiasm and diminished international support. The emotional reunifications of freed hostages with families have tempered the public’s appetite for extended conflict.
From a political standpoint, Netanyahu faces pressure from far-right factions demanding a return to an aggressive stance against Hamas. These allies view the ceasefire with skepticism, envisioning a future of new Jewish settlements in Gaza under Israeli governance. Political tensions mount with resignations and threats of governmental collapse, peering into the possibility of early elections.
As challenges intensify, Israel's path forward is laden with intricacies, necessitating a cautious approach balancing military strategy, human rights, and ensuring regional stability. These developments offer a glimpse into the difficult decisions facing Israeli leadership amidst an unstable geopolitical landscape.
