- Runoff follows May 18 first-round vote narrowing 13 candidates to two ideological opposites
- 35% of youth supported libertarian candidate now courted by both sides
- EU accuses former ruling party of eroding judicial independence since 2015
- Romanian President Dan joins Warsaw rally showing regional anti-nationalist alliance
The cobblestone streets of Warsaw echoed with competing chants as over 150,000 demonstrators rallied behind presidential finalists ahead of Sunday's decisive vote. With Poland's EU membership framework at stake, both campaigns have reframed this election as a civilizational choice between Western integration and sovereign traditionalism.
Rafał Trzaskowski's coalition emphasizes security through strengthened European partnerships, particularly given Poland's frontline position against Russian expansionism. His supporters cite Warsaw's 40% increase in defense coordination with NATO allies since the Ukraine invasion as evidence of pro-EU effectiveness. Conversely, Karol Nawrocki backers praise his institute's controversial WWII reparations campaign against Germany as demonstrating national assertiveness.
Three critical factors could tip the election:
- Diaspora Voting: 450,000 overseas ballots broke 60-40 for Trzaskowski in 2020
- Agricultural Concerns: 15% of voters work in farming sectors wary of EU regulations
- Media Polarization: State broadcaster audience share dropped 22% since government transition
Regional analysts highlight parallels to Romania's recent upset election where centrist Nicusor Dan overcame nationalist sentiment through urban mobilization. However, Poland's unique post-communist transition creates distinct generational divides - voters under 35 show 31% higher support for LGBTQ+ rights than those over 60 according to Eurostat.
With final polls showing a 1.8% margin separating the candidates, both campaigns are micro-targeting the 650,000 undecided voters in industrial Silesia. The outcome will determine whether Poland aligns with Macron's European Political Community vision or Orbán's illiberal democracy model.
