President Trump's push for a landmark Ukraine minerals deal faces mounting scrutiny as experts question the viability of accessing the nation's untapped rare earth reserves. While Ukrainian soil potentially holds $1 trillion in lithium, titanium, and cobalt deposits, Soviet-era geological data and war-torn infrastructure create formidable barriers.
Roman Opimakh, former head of Ukraine's Geological Survey, warns 'there is no modern assessment' of mineral reserves. Current estimates rely on 40-year-old Soviet maps, with critical data restricted under martial law. The Center for Strategic Studies emphasizes
'investment returns remain unlikely in the medium term'due to:
- $10 billion facility development costs
- Destroyed power grids and mines
- Russian-occupied eastern resource zones
Security risks further complicate the proposed US-Ukraine reconstruction fund. Despite Zelenskyy's secret resource-sharing annex in his 2024 Victory Plan, analysts note 60% of high-value minerals lie near active conflict zones. Developing Pokrovsk-scale facilities would require decade-long commitments amid lingering invasion threats.
While Trump claims the deal could recoup $350 billion in aid, European leaders call it a 'geopolitical sideshow.' With oil/gas reserves excluded and Kyiv demanding unapproved security guarantees, this rare earth minerals pact may deliver more headlines than harvests until Ukraine stabilizes.
