President Donald Trump’s abrupt shift in US policy toward Ukraine has ignited international debate about America’s commitment to Taiwan. As Trump engages directly with Moscow and echoes Kremlin talking points, analysts warn Beijing could exploit perceived weaknesses in Washington’s resolve.
Trump recently claimed Ukraine should have never started the war and suggested the country may be Russian someday, contradicting three years of bipartisan US support. This dramatic pivot coincides with heightened Chinese military activity near Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory.
If I were Beijing, I’d focus on Defense Secretary Hegseth’s statement about redirecting resources to Asia-Pacific. That’s not comforting for China,
said Meia Nouwens of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The administration’s strategic ambiguity on Taiwan faces new scrutiny as Trump:
- Demands payment for military protection
- Threatens tariffs on semiconductor imports
- Appoints China hawks like Marco Rubio to key roles
Russell Hsiao of the Global Taiwan Institute notes Beijing remains in wait and see mode: Trump’s unpredictability makes him a dangerous variable in cross-strait equations. While US law mandates arms sales to Taiwan, recent State Department edits removing opposition to Taiwanese independence have further strained relations.
European leaders like Emmanuel Macron warn that weakness toward Putin undermines credibility against China. As NATO allies question America’s reliability, Taiwanese officials privately express concerns about becoming bargaining chips in US-China negotiations.
Defense analyst Euan Graham cautions against direct parallels: The Ukraine withdrawal reflects misguided prioritization, not a Taiwan blueprint. With 60% of global semiconductors produced in Taiwan, the stakes transcend regional security – a reality reflected in recent trilateral statements from US, Japanese, and South Korean diplomats.
