- UNLV enters as 12.5-point favorites with home-court advantage in Las Vegas
- Air Force ranks last in MWC but averages 8 three-pointers per game
- Rebels won both regular-season meetings by 25+ points
- Total projected points set at 130.5 reflecting strong defenses
- Turnover margin critical for Air Force’s slim upset chances
The 2024 MWC Tournament kicks off with a first-round matchup between the UNLV Rebels (17-14, 11-9 MWC) and Air Force Falcons (4-27, 1-19 MWC) at the Thomas & Mack Center. UNLV’s defensive prowess – ranking fifth in the conference by allowing 68.4 points per game – contrasts sharply with Air Force’s offensive struggles, setting the stage for a classic tournament underdog narrative.
Las Vegas’ elevation (2,000+ feet) historically impacts shooting percentages, which could neutralize Air Force’s perimeter attack. The Rebels’ 44% field goal defense becomes particularly crucial against a Falcons squad that shoots just 39.7% from the floor. UNLV’s Jaden Henley enters on a hot streak, averaging 12.8 PPG over his last 10 contests.
Air Force’s three-point dependency shows in their 37.8% conference three-point shooting by guard Ethan Taylor. However, their -3.2 turnover margin per game – ranking 328th nationally – plays into UNLV’s hands. The Rebels’ 6.1 steals per game could exploit this weakness, echoing their 77-52 February rout where they forced 16 Falcon turnovers.
Regional data reveals UNLV’s 8-3 record in Las Vegas-hosted MWC Tournament games since 2015. This geographic advantage compounds Air Force’s 0-6 neutral-site record this season. Bettors should note that 70% of MWC Tournament games since 2020 stayed under the total when spreads exceeded 10 points.
With UNLV needing a tournament championship to secure an NCAA bid, expect maximum effort from senior-laden lineup. Air Force’s only path involves controlling tempo and hitting 12+ three-pointers – a feat they’ve achieved just twice all season. Tipoff at 7 PM EDT will test whether the Falcons can defy their 1-19 MWC record or if the Rebels’ home crowd propels them toward semifinal contention.