- Most expensive judicial race in U.S. history surpasses $59M in spending
- Outcome determines abortion access, union rights, and 2024 election rules
- Musk and Trump allies pour $11M+ into Republican campaign efforts
- 2023 court flip enabled Democratic map gains and ballot box reforms
As Wisconsin launches early voting for its pivotal Supreme Court election, political operatives are scrutinizing turnout patterns that could signal broader enthusiasm gaps ahead of 2024. The contest between conservative Brad Schimel and progressive Susan Crawford represents more than a local judicial seat – it’s become a proxy war over Musk’s corporate influence, Trump’s enduring political clout, and Biden’s ability to mobilize Midwestern voters.
With spending eclipsing all previous U.S. court races, this battle reveals how state judiciaries have become the new frontlines for national policy fights. The Brennan Center reports over $11M from Musk-aligned groups alone, largely targeting Schimel’s campaign since Tesla’s ongoing lawsuit against Wisconsin dealership restrictions. Analysts note this marks the first time automotive retail policies have directly intersected with a state supreme court election.
Democratic strategists are countering with a Milwaukee-focused early voting blitz, leveraging last year’s precedent where Black voter turnout increased 18% following similar efforts. Former AG Eric Holder’s Tuesday rally with local organizers aims to replicate this success, while Minnesota Governor Walz hosts anti-Musk town halls framing the election as a check on billionaire court packing.
The race’s implications extend beyond ideological balance. Since liberals gained a 4-3 majority in 2023, the court has redrawn legislative maps (yielding 3 new Democratic seats), reinstated 24/7 ballot drop boxes, and is currently weighing whether to nullify Wisconsin’s 1849 abortion ban. A Schimel victory could freeze these initiatives and shape rulings on pending cases involving public sector unions and congressional districting.
Both campaigns are testing unconventional messaging strategies. Crawford’s “Elon Schimel” attack ads tie her opponent to Musk’s legal battles, while Schimel’s Mega MAGA rally appearances contrast with his courtroom independence pledges. This dissonance reflects Wisconsin’s unique political landscape, where 43% of 2020 Biden voters simultaneously backed a conservative judicial candidate according to Marquette University data.
As in-person voting continues through March 30, election officials report surging requests for absentee ballots in Dane (D+46) and Waukesha (R+34) counties – potential early indicators of base mobilization. With 72% of Wisconsinites supporting abortion rights per recent polls but only 52% aware of the court’s role in determining access, both campaigns are racing to educate voters through targeted digital ads and community forums.